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Prop 36 = Referendum on Prop 47
The main objective of this essay is a review of Prop 47 track record over the past decade. A secondary objective is a short review of the merit of Prop 36, and its probability of passing.
Prop 47 overall crime rate track record
When I conducted an earlier analysis on the Big States, I could tell that California's crime rate track record since 2014 (onset of Prop 47) was not that good compared to the other big states: New York, Florida, and Texas.
Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer
The left-hand graph above shows that California was very close to having the lowest violent crime rate at under 400 per 100,000 back in 2014. By 2022, its crime rate had increased by over 20% at 500. And, it was far higher than for the other states.
The right-hand graph shows that California's property crime rate has declined far less than for the other states.
Property crime clearance rate
Clearance rate means arrest rate. As shown in the graph below, the California property crime clearance rate dropped far faster after Prop 47 (green vertical dashed line in 2014). By 2022, it was under 8% or more than 1/3d lower than for comparable states (12%).
Source: PPIC
Larceny Clearance Rate
The graph below disaggregates California property crime clearance rate among its three sub-components:
- burglary (theft by breaking into a building, a car, etc.),
- larceny (theft without breaking into anything), and
- auto theft.
Focusing on larceny (closest proxy for retail theft ), its clearance rate abruptly dropped from 16% before Prop 47 down to close to 6% by 2022. This drop consists of two separate abrupt drops. The first one is after Prop 47 from 16% in 2014 to close to 12% by 2017. The second drop is at the onset of the COVID pandemic when it dropped to close to 6% by 2021 and 2022.
Source: PPIC
Let's have a closer look at larceny clearance rates at the county level. The table below shows such rates for the 10 largest counties plus San Francisco and Marin County. These represent 29 million Californians or 74% of the total state population.
On a weighted average basis, the larceny clearance rate dropped from 15.7% before Prop 47 to 10.8% after Prop 47 and 6.4% after the COVID pandemic.
Source: PPIC
The table below captures the larceny clearance rate % change associated with Prop 47 and the COVID pandemic.
On a weighted average basis, the larceny clearance rate declined by - 31.5% in association with Prop 47 and another - 38.1% in association with the COVID pandemic.
Source: PPIC
Violent crime rate
As shown earlier after Prop 47, the California violent crime rate rose much faster than for the other three big states. The graph below shows that the California (red line) aggravated assault rate after Prop 47 rose a lot faster than for comparable states (gray line).
Source: PPIC
Incarceration rate
The California incarceration rate has steadily declined since 2008. And, it has declined a bit faster than for comparable states and a lot faster than for the US as a whole.
Source: PPIC
California's lower incarceration rate combined with its lackluster performance on any crime trend relative to other states is not supporting Prop 47.
Misdemeanor vs misdemeanor cap. California vs Texas
You may be surprised that California's misdemeanor cap at $950 is far lower than Texas' at $2,500. However, both states punish misdemeanors completely differently. In Texas:
- theft between $100 and $750 is a Class B misdemeanor with a fine up to $2,000 and six months in jail.
- theft between $750 and $2.500 is a Class A misdemeanor with a fine up to $4,000 and a year in jail.
Meanwhile, in California offenders can steal just under $950 repeatedly. They often get away with just a citation, no fine, and no jail time.
A Texas misdemeanor is more like a California felony.
As a result of Texas punishing misdemeanor, Texas larceny events have steadily decreased much faster than California's. This is except for part of 2020 and most of 2021, when the California retail sector was pretty much locked down due to COVID. In 2023, when California unlocked the retail sector, larceny events bounced right back up way over Texas' numbers.
Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer
What the Data says about California's Crime Management
If you are a thief in California, your probability of getting caught is much lower. If you get caught your punishment is much lesser.
Prop 36
Without going into details, Prop 36 would restore some of the penalties for theft and drug possession & dealing
in place before Prop 47. Opponents of Prop 36 are concerned that it
would raise the incarceration rate to unsustainable high levels. The Legislative Analyst indicates that expected
increase in incarceration would be just a few thousands. The current
incarcerated population is about 340,000 or about 0.9% of the California
population.
Crime is heavily concentrated. For instance, in New York City, one third of retail thefts were committed by just 327 people who were collectively arrested and rearrested 6,000 times throughout 2022 according to a recent article in the New York Times. It is most likely that this phenomenon of high frequency repeat offenders facilitated by Prop 47 is most common in California's major cities.
Observing the shortcomings of Prop 47, the voting public is eager to shore up its judiciary system to restore a viable retail business environment and community safety.
Frequent pictures of smash-and-gab events in the media only reinforces the issue in the public's mind.
Prop 36 would enhance the capturing of the high frequency repeat offenders. This could have a strong impact on reducing crime rates without ballooning the incarcerated population. Capturing the few hundreds of high frequency repeat offenders could make a dramatic difference.
Prop 36 polls
Source: PPIC Statewide Survey
Below, I just converted the polls into probabilities. Based on the size of the sample, the error margin of this poll is + or - 2.7% (and a standard deviation of under 1.4%). The Yes percentage at above 70% is more than 15 standard deviations above the 50% needed to pass Prop 37. This translates into a 100% probability of passing.
Source: PPIC Statewide Survey
The 100% probability of passing is subject to the standard limitations of polls. In this case the limitations include:
- The polls were conducted a full two months before elections.
- Poll samples are always vulnerable to flaws that become apparent only in hindsight after an election.
However, in this case, the polls may be pretty informative and even predictive for several reasons:
- Early by mail voting is starting in the next few days.
- There is a strong perception by the voting public that Prop 47 has been a failure. And, the data when you compare California's crime rate trends with other states confirms the public perception.
THE END
Gaetan Lion is an independent researcher with expertise in economics, econometrics, investments, risk management, statistics, and quantitative analysis. His areas of interest include demographics, economics, investments, Climate Change, health care, sports, and politics.