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The Battle of the Big States
This article is the equivalent of an Abstract of a much longer article at Medium. (The Medium link is free). The latter includes far more explanatory narrative (about 2,400 words vs. only about 600 for this Abstract) and more extensive data visualization, including data sources. However, this Abstract can give you a representative taste of what this study is about. And, it may invite you to get the whole story (or not).
This is an analysis of four influential US states—California, New York, Florida, and Texas—across seven socioeconomic dimensions: Health, Society, Education, Demographics, Employment, Economics, and Housing. These states, if independent, would rank among the top economies in the world, with California being 4th, Texas 8th, New York 9th, and Florida 14th.
HEALTH
- Smoking
Blue states (California and New York) have consistently lower smoking rates than Red states (Florida and Texas), with overall declining rates since 2000 despite an uptick in 2017-2018.
- Obesity
Red states have higher obesity rates, with Texas being notably higher. Obesity rates are rising over time for all states.
- Diabetes
Rates are increasing across all states, with Texas having the highest rates.
- Cancer Mortality
Blue states perform better, with California having significantly lower rates and New York experiencing a rapid drop since 2016.
- Heart Disease
New York has the highest mortality rate, while Florida and California have the lowest.
- Life Expectancy
Blue states generally have longer life expectancies. However, New York's life expectancy dropped significantly in 2020 due to COVID-19.
SOCIETY
- Poverty
Initially, Blue states had lower poverty rates, but by 2022, poverty rates did not correlate strongly with political alignment.
- Crime
California has seen an increase in violent and property crime rates since 2014. New York's crime rates spiked in 2021. Florida has the most improved crime statistics, with the lowest rates in 2022. Texas's violent crime rate is higher than in 2014, but property crime rates have dropped.
EDUCATION
- High School and College Degrees
Graduation rates have increased for all states, but high school and college graduation rates do not correlate. California and Texas have similar high school graduation rates, but California's college graduation rates are higher.
- University Rankings
California leads with 9 universities in the top 50, while Florida has only one, which may contribute to its lower college graduation rates.
DEMOGRAPHICS
- Population
California has the largest population, but population growth trends are more critical. As shown on the graphs below, California's population has flattened out and declined for the past few years. The same is pretty much true for New York. While Texas and Florida have kept on growing.
EMPLOYMENT
- Unemployment Rate
Red states typically have lower unemployment rates, with Florida having the lowest at 2.5% in 2023.
- Labor Participation
Florida has the lowest labor participation rate, which may affect the interpretation of its unemployment rate (not so great after all).
ECONOMICS
- Inflation
California and Florida respective inflation is just about even throughout the entire time series. Texas is much lower than the other States.
- Taxes
Red states have a significantly lower overall tax burden. Florida relies heavily on sales taxes, while Texas has a diversified tax revenue without individual income tax. California's tax rates are typically much higher across tax types.
- Household Income
California has the highest median household income, but when adjusted for inflation and home prices (as shown on the graphs below), California and Florida's incomes have contracted since 2000, while New York and Texas have seen increases.
HOUSING
- Home Prices
California home prices are far higher than in the other States. And, they represent a far higher housing cost burden as shown on the graph below.
THE END
Gaetan Lion is an independent researcher with expertise in economics, econometrics, investments, risk management, statistics, and quantitative analysis. His areas of interest include demographics, economics, investments, Climate Change, health care, sports, and politics.