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Planning Growth Before Maintaining Existing Infrastructure
Plan Bay Area 2040, the new plan for how our region will grow housing and transportation infrastructure, plans for significant population growth - growth of 30% between 2010 and 2040. In Marin population growth of 13% is projected. Last month I asked the Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM) the simple question:
"Is there funding to maintain the capacity of the road infrastructure?"
It seems reasonable that before we add new residents we first maintain the infrastructure that we have - otherwise we're irresponsibly compounding traffic congestion and making our roads difficult to drive on - and we're going to end up with a mess.
Only once we plan how we fund maintaining what we have, should we begin to consider funding the infrastructure necessary to support further population growth.
Sounds simple? But no - transportation planners and elected politicians are fixated on growth - it's a nuisance to be dwelling on such basics as simply paying to maintain our infrastructure. In the 1980s greed was good, today "growth is good".
MTC and TAM's Response - $40 - $ 61 Billion Shortfall
In response to my records request asking about funding of our current infrastructure TAM directed me to this Plan Bay Area 2040 document:
https://mtc.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=4370236&...
The document provides this summary:
"to reach a state of good repair, in which all roads are maintained at their optimum levels and transit assets are replaced at the end of their useful lives, in addition to being able to maintain existing service levels for public transit, the region will need to spend an estimated total of $241 billion over the next 24 years.
Currently, draft estimates of revenue available for the operation and maintenance of the existing system total $180 billion, leaving a remaining need of approximately $61 billion. To maintain existing conditions on our region’s roadways and the existing state of repair of transit assets and service levels, the region would need to spend approximately $218 billion over the next 24 years, about $40 billion more than forecasted revenue."
Plan Bay Area 2040: Forget Maintenance - Grow Baby Grow!
Plan Bay Area 2040 at least assesses the current needs - but it doesn't appear to provide any answers. It's focus and goals are misaligned because they begin with the premise that we have to grow and we must plan for this growth.
It's also misaligned as it is fixated on the premise of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by shifting residents from using cars to transit - another tilting at windmills exercise where billions will be spent achieving little - or worse moving the needle the wrong way.
Where Does This Leave Us?
We're left with a plan that sets us up for disaster. It diverts money to fund growth in priority development areas (PDAs) - which will only exacerbate the issue; while it potentially ignores basic housekeeping of paying for the infrastructure we've got.
For residents this means we're leaving a region to our children that will be miserable to live in - with under maintained infrastructure and consequent massive congestion.
The topic above doesn't even begin to address the follow on question - so if our population is going to grow by 30% do we have the funding to pay for the additional infrastructure required to maintain the same quality of service levels for roads and transit as we do today?
I suspect I know the answer. It's not a question planners or elected officials want us to be asking or focused on.