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Will California's Proposition 1 pass? Most likely
Summary
Proposition 1 is on the March 5th California ballot. It needs a 50% majority to pass. It authorizes $6.38 Billion in bonds to build mental health treatment facilities for those with mental health challenges. It provides housing for the homeless. It amends the Health Services Act to provide additional behavioral health services. It also shifts $140 million annually of existing tax revenue for mental health from counties to the state.
Regardless of its merits, Proposition 1 is most likely to pass.
The most recent poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute (PPIC) indicates that around 60% of likely voters are in favor. The poll sample size (over 1,000) translates into a probability of Proposition 1 passing at close to 100%.
The California legislature passed the underpinnings of Proposition 1 by over 80%. These included the Senate Bill 326 (which changes the allocation of funds between the State and counties) and Assembly Bill 531 (introducing the $6.4 billion bond to fund treatment centers).
Supporters have raised over $10 million. Opponents have raised only $1,000.
Except for The Orange County Register, all major dailies (LA Time, SF Chronicle, San Jose Mercury News, Sacramento Bee) support Proposition 1.
Given the above, Proposition 1 is most likely to pass.
Content
- Background
- The polls
- Probability of Proposition 1 passing
- Explaining the support for Proposition 1
- Supporters and Opponents
- Campaign funds supporting Proposition 1
- California Legislature support for Proposition 1
Background
Proposition 1 is on the March 5th California ballot. It needs a 50% majority to pass. Proposition 1 authorizes $6.38 Billion in bonds to build mental health treatment facilities for those with mental health and substance use issues. It provides housing for the homeless. It amends the Health Services Act to provide additional behavioral health services.
The fiscal impacts are to shift $140 million annually of existing tax revenue for mental health from counties to the state and increase state bond repayment costs of $310 million annually for 30 years.
The polls
We uncovered four different polls on Proposition 1 conducted between November 2023 and mid-February 2024. These included:
- Two polls from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) conducted in November and February.
- The California Elections and Policy Poll conducted at the end of January by USC, CSU Long Beach, and Cal Poly Pomona. I call that poll USC.
- Morning Consult & Politico poll conducted in mid-December. I call this one Politico.
You can see the polls results on Proposition 1 below.
Now, let’s prorate the Yes and Nos so they add up to 100%. We do this by taking out the Undecided.
Next, let’s explore the related polls statistics.
Within the above table, I reduced the sample size by taking out the
Undecided. I then calculated the variance, standard deviation, 95%
confidence interval, error margin, and MIN and MAX associated with the
95% confidence interval using standard statistics.
Probabilities of Proposition 1 passing
Even when focusing on the lower poll of February 13, the probability of
Prop 1 passing is close to 100% as the table below indicates. The 60.8%
mean proportion is 7.2 standard deviations above the passing threshold
of 50.0%. This translates into a Prop 1 probability of passing to be
very close to 100%.
Below, we explore the probability of Prop 1 passing at various percentage levels of in-favor or Yes votes.
As shown above, based on the most recent poll, there is over a 70% probability that Prop 1 will pass by an in-favor percentage as high as 60%, when it needs only 50% to pass.
Next, we will look at why Prop 1 is getting a pretty strong support that shores up its probability of passing.
Explaining the support for Proposition 1
Californians are painfully aware of homelessness (PPIC poll 72% see homeless nearly every day).
The large tent encampments have grown and become omnipresent within all California large cities.
Addicted homeless is a visual reminder that the status quo is not working.
About 80% of California polled likely voters support financial
assistance for the homeless and converting vacant office space into
affordable housing.
As of December 2023, office vacancy rates have gone through the roof in
both San Francisco (32.1%) and Los Angeles (27%). These huge vacancy
rates may represent an opportunity for converting vacant office spaces
to affordable housing for the homeless. However, the economics of such
conversion remains unclear.
Supporters and Opponents
Supporters include:
- National Alliance on Mental Illness — CA
- Mental Health Services Oversight and Accountability Commission
- Blue Shield, Kaiser, Sutter Health
- CA Assoc. of Veteran Service Agencies, California Veterans Assistance Foundation
- California Professional Firefighters
- California Correctional Peace Officers Association
- California Chamber of Commerce, California Business Roundtable
- League of California Cities
Opponents include:
- Mental Health America of California
- Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
- CalVoices
- Disability Rights California
- The League of Women Voters of California
When looking at supporters vs opponents, it looks like a fair fight. But, when we will look next at the campaign funds raised, it is not. This fight is over.
Campaign funds supporting Proposition 1
Based on recent data from Ballotpedia, Prop 1 supporters have raised
close to $11 million, spent a bit more than $1 million, and have close
to $10 million left in the bank. Hospital concerns have contributed a
bit over $3 million.
Ballotpedia data as of February 22, 2024
By contrast, the opponents of Prop 1 have raised only one thousand dollars.
If campaign financing is any indication, you would expect that Proposition 1 is most likely to pass.
California Media's position on Proposition 1
Supports Proposition 1
- The Los Angeles Times endorsed Proposition 1, calling it a “modest step forward on mental health care” and highlighting its importance in meeting California’s responsibility to vulnerable homeless individuals.
- The San Francisco Chronicle also supports Proposition 1, emphasizing its role in addressing the state’s mental health crisis and homelessness issues.
- The San Jose Mercury News expressed support for Proposition 1, describing it as a bold but necessary approach to managing California’s mental health crisis.
- The Sacramento Bee board believes that the passage of Proposition 1 could be a cost-effective use of limited taxpayer dollars spent on mental health.
Opposes Proposition 1
- The Orange County Register opposes Proposition 1. They view it as a costly bureaucratic power grab that diverts funding from mental health services at the county level. It also views that it is reallocating funds and potentially hindering counties’ ability to prioritize mental health services based on local needs.
Conclusion for this section
The Media is split along partisan lines. The one major conservative daily, The Orange County Register, is against Proposition 1. All the other major dailies are in favor of Proposition 1.
Based on overall Media support, you would expect that Proposition 1 is most likely to pass.
California Legislature support for Proposition 1
The California Legislature introduced Proposition 1 through two bills:
- Senate Bill 326 (that changes the allocation of funds between the State and counties); and
- Assembly Bill 531 (that introduced the $6.4 billion bond to fund treatment centers).
Senate Bill 326 (SB 326), introduced in the 2023–2024 legislative session, was a legislation modifying the Mental Health Services Act (MHSA), revising the distribution of MHSA funds between State and counties. Formerly, the distribution between State and counties was 5% vs 95%, respectively. Senate Bill 326 changed the mix to 10%/90%.
Assembly Bill 531, also known as The Behavioral Health Infrastructure Bond Act of 2023, was a legislative act in California that facilitated Proposition 1 to be on the March 5th ballot. The bill aimed to fund the building of mental health and drug or alcohol treatment centers through the issuance of $6.4 billion in bonds.
As shown below about 90% of legislators voted in favor of Senate Bill 326 and 84% in favor of Assembly Bill 531. These represent dominant percentages, especially when you factor that the California Legislature has numerous Republicans who will reflexively vote against anything proposed by the California Legislature that is dominated by Democrats.
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