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MMWD
MMWD is now into studies roadmaps! This is a water supply update
On June 6th the MMWD made a confusing presentation (attached at the end of this article). It disclosed the following slide on how it planned to add to the water supply out to 2035.
I shared with MMWD Management that I found the above roadmap perplexing. I passed by Management the following considerations:
- Does the MMWD truly plan to add up to 20,000 acre-feet per year (AFY), when their consultants estimated that the MMWD only needed 8,500 AFY to reach an adequate level of 4-year water supply security? See the documentation below on the 8,500 AFY deficit per MMWD and Jacobs Engineering.
- From the roadmap shown earlier, one can't figure out how the MMWD reaches the very high added water supply levels. What project generates what in terms of AFY?
Management indicated that they were still pretty much on track to target added water supply of 8,500 AFY. And, Management shared with me a 110-page document with a specific section that provides more information on the projects' specific AFY generation. So, I dug into the document and extracted the following summary information.
Within the table above, I added debt service cost using an interest
rate of 4.00% and a term of 30 years. This allows to disaggregate the
debt service costs from the operating expenses associated with each
project. I don't have information to assess whether the resulting operating expenses are realistic.
Notice that both desalination and water recycling have been excluded from the proposed project selection for the time being. They are deemed either too expensive or too challenging to implement or both. This project selection is not final.
The MMWD can easily generate 3,000 AFY from water stream release automation, and optimize Sonoma water purchases. This means it needs another 5,500 AFY to meet the 8,500 AFY target. This renders the Conveyance to Storage project superfluous. It is too costly and does not generate as much as increasing the local reservoir storage (5,000 AFY for $1,650 per AFY).
I passed my rationale by MMWD Management, and they indicated that I was technically correct.
Improving water management alone can boost the water supply a lot
Within this section, I will review water management improvement opportunities in two areas:
- Water stream release accuracy
- Optimizing purchases of Sonoma waters
Water stream release accuracy
Historically, the MMWD water stream release has been highly inaccurate, and way above mandated levels during dry years, just when we need the water the most.
As shown in the tables above, on average the MMWD has released more than 3,000 AF over regulatory mandates during dry years!
Just accurately releasing the mandated water release levels during dry years would save 3,000 AF at very little cost. Thus, if the MMWD needs 8,500 AFY to adequately secure a 4-year water supply, just conducting accurate water releases during dry years brings the necessary added water supply down to 5,500 AFY.
The table of correlations below is disturbing. There are nearly perfect negative correlations between how much water the MMWD releases and how much water the MMWD gets from rainfall or runoff. The less water nature provides the MMWD, the less water it should release (as regulatory mandates allow). But, instead, the MMWD does just the opposite. The less water it gets from nature, the more water it releases. That is how to create or exacerbate water crises. It did exactly that during our most recent water crisis in 2021 when we were less than 12 months from running out of water.
Optimizing purchases of Sonoma waters
Another way to boost the MMWD water supply is to substantially increase purchases of Sonoma waters. The MMWD has always purchased the bare minimum of Sonoma waters. The MMWD is allowed to buy 14,300 AF from Sonoma. And, it has the infrastructure capacity to buy 11,000 AF. As shown below, it has always purchased much less than it could have even during the dry years.
When you look at the tables above, you can see that MMWD has always released a lot more water than it has purchased from Sonoma. During dry years, this does not make any sense because doing so again just contributes to exacerbating water crises, just like the MMWD did during the most recent 2021 water crisis.
Where are we in terms of funding the projects?
As shown on the slide above, the Soulajule reservoir electrification project is funded. It will provide just a modest 420 AFY. The Phoenix to Bon Tempe reservoir connection is also funded. It will provide just 260 AFY. Optimization of Sonoma water purchases and automation of water release to improve accuracy are both associated with modest costs in R&D that are also funded. But, all other project line items above are not associated with any funding for any specific projects; instead, the earmarked dollars are only to fund long-term studies regarding such projects.
On a positive note, MMWD has applied for a grant to fund half of the capital costs of the expansion of the local water reservoir storage capacity.
Roadmap regarding hiring consultants to develop ongoing studies
As a reminder, MMWD has already spent $650,000 on a yearlong exhaustive study regarding water supply expansion conducted by Jacobs Engineering. However, the MMWD has the propensity to study forever and also delay urgent infrastructure projects forever.
The roadmap below indicates the schedule regarding the selection of consultants to study several different water supply options. Three different sets of consultants are to be hired by September 2023.
Notice within the first tranche in orange, the prospective study is on Petaluma brackish desalination. However, this water supply option has been explicitly excluded from the recommended water supply options as stated earlier in this article.
Notice within the second tranche in blue, the prospective study is on Conveyance. As shown earlier, this option is costly coming in at $3,000 AFY. And, is redundant. The increase in existing reservoir storage capacity is a much better option that provides more AFY at a much lower cost per AFY.
The increase in existing reservoir storage (green tranche) also has an earmarked study. MMWD should be more knowledgeable about its own reservoirs that it has managed for numerous decades. With its teams of engineers and scientists, the MMWD should not need to hire external consultants for what they already know or should know. Expanding the reservoirs by 20,000 AF (or about 5,000 AFY) should not be such a complicated project.
This second roadmap of studies below gives you a rough idea of when some of the studies will be completed (by August 2024).
Based on the above information what can we expect?
In the short-term
The MMWD is likely to:
- Improve the accuracy of water releases; and
- Optimize the purchase of water from Sonoma.
As mentioned above, these two measures combined could well provide over 3,000 AFY. This is a low-hanging fruit that amounts to simply stopping to mismanage existing water resources. It is self-evident, yet critical that MMWD improves its water supply management asap.
Over the medium-term
By 2026 and 2027, the MMWD is likely to:
- Complete the Soulajule reservoir electrification (420 AFY); and
- Complete the Phoenix to Bon Tempe reservoir connection (260 AFY).
As shown above, these two medium-term projects will provide a lot less water supply than the mentioned two short-term projects.
Over the long-term
Over the long-term, the picture is unclear. The MMWD is moving forward with the local water reservoir storage expansion. And, this should suffice to meet the 8,500 AFY target when combined with the short-term and medium-term options.
However, the MMWD is still considering other options such as Conveyance.
Also, MMWD has currently excluded desalination from recommended strategies. But, it will study this option till mid-2024. What does this mean for the ultimate fate of desalination at the MMWD?
Remember the hefty water rate increase that kicks in on July 1st, is not even adequate to stabilize the huge backlogs of pipes and other infrastructure items that it needs to replace. See my earlier article on the topic: The MMWD has lost all sense of urgency.
Regarding the financing of any long-term projects, the only item moving forward is a grant application to fund half of the capital costs of the expansion of the local water reservoir storage capacity. The MMWD will still have to come up with half of the funding or about $45 to $55 million. It also will have to budget for any related operating and maintenance expenses associated with the reservoir expansions. This will be associated with a hefty rate increase much beyond the one that kicks in on July 1st.
The urgency of resolving water crises at MMWD
Not so fast...
So, when will we get additional water supply from any long-term projects? This probably will be in the next decade in the 2030s.
That is about half a century after the MMWD knew it needed to shore up its water supply to avoid chronic water crises. Remember back in 1976, we were 3 months away from running out of water. Since then, the MMWD did not shore up adequately its water supply infrastructure. We had a second close call with our more recent water crisis in 2021 when we were less than 12 months away from running out of water. Ever since the MMWD has mainly kept on studying. Generations of MMWD Board members and hired consultants have been "studying" since 1976.