Western City Magazine
The Cost of Monetary Policy Tomfoolery
The RIA Advice Daily Market Commentary shared the following comments and chart contributed by Ronnie Stoeferle:
“Thirteen years is an awfully long time for the Fed to have
suspended free market interest rates in the world’s largest economy. Not to
mention pinning rates at absolute zero for nine of those 13 years. Billions of
economic decisions were made by millions of market participants with the faulty
information of suppressed interest rates (and a debased currency) under the
illusion of efficient capital allocation. What percentage of these economic
decisions will stand up as rates normalize? How many were rational?”
"The quote does a great job of explaining the pickle the Fed is in. Their actions from 2008 to 2021 resulted in a massive misallocation of capital toward unproductive ventures. Over the next few years, the Fed will have to get rates back down or risk widespread bankruptcy among firms that were able to borrow at rates that were not appropriate."
"The graph below shows Fed Funds spent most of the last fifteen years pinned near zero. At the same time, the Fed grew its balance sheet, via Quantitative Easing, by 10x."