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Guy
Misundertanding the Homeless Crisis
The cover page article within the Marin IJ Homeless numbers grow despite massive spending published on December 30, 2023, made many confusing statements. Let's attempt to clarify the fog using the actual data conveyed within the article.
The article mentioned that California has the largest homeless population in the US. That's inevitable
It is by far the largest state; and, it has very mild winters. Given that, it is inevitable that it would have the largest homeless population in the Nation.
The article glossed over that in 2023, California's growth in homelessness was relatively low
During 2023, the number of homeless grew by 6% in California, only half as much as for the Nation coming in at 12%, and a lot lower than New Hampshire at 52%, New Mexico at 50%, and New York and Colorado coming in at 39%.
The article misrepresented California's income growth. Fact check: "Between 2000 and 2021 ... [California] renter income rose only 7%"
The 7% figure is provided by the nonprofit California Housing Partnership (CFP). I could not find any time series for California renter income. But, when working on my recent essay The Battle of the Big States I found US Census data for California's median household income. It rose from $46,280 in 2000 to $81,580 in 2021. That's an increase of 76%. This would be over 10 times higher than the renters' income increase divulged by CFP. Given that, CFP's 7% figure appears highly unlikely.
Source: US Census
The article contradicted itself regarding Santa Clara's performance in homelessness management. Is Santa Clara County great or terrible on this count?
Ethan Varian, the IJ journalist, brings up contradicting assessments. At first, he mentions that Santa Clara's homelessness increased by only 1% during 2023 because "Officials there said building more affordable and supportive housing ... helped prevent a surge."
A few paragraphs later, the article states "Santa Clara County, which includes San Jose, had the highest rate of unsheltered homelessness of any major metro area in the US."
Thus, the low increase in Santa Clara homelessness had probably little to do with "building more affordable and supportive housing."
How about Marin County's performance regarding homelessness?
The article mentioned that Marin County's homelessness has increased by 8.5%. This seemed high vs the 6% for California. But, Marin County's rise was over a three-year period from 2019 to 2022. That corresponds to about 2.8% per year. On a relative basis, that's pretty good.
What's the solution?
"Some officials are pushing to rapidly scale up shelter capacity over objections from advocates who say cities should instead focus on building permanent supportive housing."
Let's look at a bit of relevant data. Housing mandates target building 1 million affordable housing units by 2030. We clearly do not need to build 1 million units to house 181,000 homeless individuals. Also, at a unit cost of $750,000 and above affordable housing is not so affordable.
$750,000 x 1,000,000 = $750 billion!
That is two and a half times the entire annual California Budget!
Given the above, I am with the officials who are pushing to scale up shelter capacity.
THE END