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Fire, Ready, Aim! Marin Mandates it will be "Diesel Free by 2033"
In what may be the most remarkable policy declaration yet by the Marin County supervisors, the Marin IJ reported on September 16th that by 2033 the county will go diesel free!
A laudable goal, but this coverage exposed what appears to be a well-meaning, progressive-approved virtue signal that is possibly one of the least thought-through policy moves in years!
The implications make one question the logic of statements like this from Supervisor Rice:
"The key is for public agencies or even private companies or organizations that have large fleets of vehicles or power equipment that currently runs on diesel is you have to plan a procurement strategy,” Rice said. “You never replace everything all at once, but folks needs to start thinking about it now and what’s the strategy of getting off of diesel and adopting some of these cleaner technologies.”
Going Diesel Free just one year after the county launches a major diesel project: The "SMART" Train
This new policy is remarkable because it comes just one year after the launch of the biggest transportation project in Marin in decades - the SMART train.
SMART is powered by a 19 liter Cummins diesel locomotive!
Locomotives, which were procured at a cost to taxpayers of $56.8M, are assumed to have a 30 year lifespan. SMART spent an additional $6.6M on additional carriages - which are diesel powered DMUs (not center cars) - in December of 2012. Later, presenting a fraudulent rationale to the California Department of transportation in order to secure cap and trade funds, representing capacity as ridership (as if every seat on every train is used), it raised another $11M to purchase additional DMUs.
In 2015, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the Bay Area's regional transportation authority, saw through SMART's deception, when the SMART Board attempted the very same "capacity is the same as ridership" deception (watch this video where SMART is exposed by MTC's expert). MTC denied awarding SMART funds, which were being awarded on the basis of fighting climate change.
The cost of SMART to the taxpayer for the 1/4 cent sales tax is estimated to be $566M through June 2016 (the author has traced additional costs taking the true cost beyond $1 billion).
So, the county and its taxpayers are now committed to diesel trains to the tune of nearly $100M, trains that are meant to have a service life lasting until 2048. But now, not a year after launch of the train, the county declares that these trains will have to be removed from service by 2033!?
How is this good financial planning?
But it gets worse.
Ridership numbers prove SMART is a dismal failure, yet the line expands!
Quite remarkably, despite SMARTs dismal ridership numbers, which are far below the most conservative projections, the SMART train continues to expand!
SMART is extending to Larkspur - the cost of which has escalated far beyond initial projections to $59.4M. SMART is also expanding to Windsor - spending $55M to extend track by 3 miles.
The Remarkable Cost of Electrifying SMART
The implications of the Marin County Supervisor's declaration is that SMART will have to be completely re-engineered and electrified. Consider for a moment that the cost of the Caltrains' Penninsula Corridor Electrification Project is projected to be $1.225 billion. This is a similar length to the full line 71 mile length of SMART. This cost would likely require raising SMART's sales tax from 1/4 cent to 3/4 cent - which is unlikely given that polling showed that voters would not have passed SMART's measure Q had it asked for 1/2 cent tax.
At present, given SMART's demonstrable ridership failure, SMART faces an uphill struggle just to renew its 1/4 cent tax.
Other Costs of Going "Diesel Free"
Separately, any switch to diesel would require the county replacing at quite considerable cost:
- fire trucks
- garbage trucks
- trucks used by public works departments to haul equipment and debris
How will this be paid for even if it is deemed desirable?
Some of this equipment is not yet available using non-diesel power plants. Any such procurements will be at premium prices and potentially securing unproven equipment for services that county residents truly depend upon.
Yet, the county supervisors continue to pat themselves on the back while they squander taxpayer's dollars.