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Richard Hall
When is 2,260 More than 3,000? When You're SMART
SMART boosters such as the Marin IJ and now Supervisor Damon Connolly are continuing to misrepresent SMART's ridership to taxpayers, echoing attempts by General Manager Farhad Mansourian to present a misleadingly rosy picture of the project.
Each Marin household has already contributed on average $831 to the train, yet fewer than about 1,130 people (2,260 trips) of the 763,000 people who live in Marin and Sonoma use the train. That's less than 0.25% of residents - otherwise known as a rounding error.
When is 2,260 Bigger than 3,000?
In September 2017 the Marin IJ shared in a report that:
SMART is reporting ridership numbers since last Tuesday when fares went from half to full price. The runs on Tuesday had 1,853 riders; Wednesday, 1,854; Thursday, 2,122; Friday, 2,450; Saturday, 2,142; and Sunday, 1,505. SMART projected 3,000 riders initially on weekdays and 300 on each weekend day.
Taking the latest October figures there are now an average of 2,260 weekday riders - riders means trips. For most educated people these show that SMART failed to meet it's projection of 3,000 weekday riders by a gap of 25%. Yet still Marin residents are being told SMART exceeded ridership expectations.
Marin's Future Chair of the Board of Supervisors Propagates Misinformation
Supervisor Damon Connolly states in his winter 2017 newsletter sent out on Friday December 8th:
SMART is exceeding ridership expectations.
The Marin IJ also spins the facts in an article on November 9th stating:
The SMART train has answered its critics. Commuters are riding it to and from work.
In answer to critics’ oft-repeated contention that “nobody” is going to ride the train, since its launch in August an average of 15,300 passengers per week have taken the train.
That’s a little shy of SMART’s start-up projection of 15,600 passengers per week, but it’s still a solid foundation for building ridership.
The IJ neglects to mention that during the reporting period SMART was offering half price season tickets.
Residents Pay the Bill But Being Lied to About the Results
Residents are footing the bill for the train. According to SMART's own figures the average household in Marin has spent $831 on this train through June 30, 2017 through the sales tax and this number is climbing. Here is the math:
- Households in Marin: 103,882
- SMART’s Tax revenues (FY 2016) = $34.8 MM
- Marin’s Share (approx) = 36.6%
- Marin Tax to SMART = $12.7 MM
- $ per HH = $122/year (2016)
- The SMART Measure Q sales tax began April 1, 2009
Residents paying for the train deserve to be given the facts and not spin to fit a narrative.