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The West Without Water

A Must Read: The West Without Water

**Please click here to view a version of this article with photos, illustrations and a reference list.

Given the American West’s recent drought, a highly relevant book to read is “The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climate Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow” by Dr. Lynn Ingram and Dr. Frances Malamud-Roam.

Ingram’s and Malamud-Roam's research assesses how climates and environments have changed over the past several thousand years based on the geochemical and sedimentologic analysis of aquatic sediments, archeological deposits, and tree-ring records. The authors bring together many lines of evidence by paleoclimatologists (those that study past climate change using geologic evidence), including various aspects in sediment cores and the fossils in them, the chemistry of the fossils and the sediments, pollen remnants, and charcoal remains (which indicate past wildfires). The archeological record contains clues on how past climate and environments impacted human populations.

The book imparts information that is essential for making sound decisions and preparations for future climate change. As such, I wish to share some of Ingram’s and Malamud-Roam’s key findings.

The following information was taken from the book entitled; “The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts and Other Climate Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow” and related articles.

Causes of the Long-Term Climate in the Western US

“Over the long-term, natural climate variations are driven by a number of factors, including the ocean temperatures in the north Pacific (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), the El Nino Southern Oscillation, sunspots, slight changes in the earth’s orbit over thousands of years, and volcanic eruptions. On top of these natural causes, the human-caused increase in greenhouse gases also impacts our climate.”[1]

Major Climatic Events of the Past Thousand Years in the Western US

Climate in the last 150 years (post 1850) has been relatively benign, with an ample water supply, compared to what it was like over the last 10,000 years.

During the past several thousand years, California and the West have experienced extremes in climate that we have not seen in modern history. Evidence shows that mega-floods and multidecadal droughts, which were more catastrophic than we can imagine, have been a regular feature of the climate and are likely to repeat themselves.[2]

Throughout the “Medieval Warm Period”, 900 to 1400 AD, the western United States had a relatively dry period. There were several prolonged periods of drought that lasted decades to over a century! This was followed by the “Little Ice Age”, a cooler, wetter period that continued until the 19th century. The 20th century was unusually wet, with fewer droughts on average than the previous 1000 years.[3]

The recent dry decade and drought in California may be telling us that we could be seeing the start of a reversion to much drier condition going forward.[4]

Megafloods

Megafloods have hit California every one to two centuries. The last one was in 1861-1862 and was caused by 43 days of rain from atmospheric river storms. "Atmospheric rivers" carry vast amounts of water vapor for thousands of miles and may contain as much water as ten to fifteen Mississippi Rivers. When conditions are right, these conveyor belts of moisture travel eastward until they hit the Sierras and drop their moisture as rainfall or snow.[5]

The 1861-1862 megaflood filled the entire CentralValley (350 miles long and 20 miles wide) with water 20 feet deep. The City of Sacramento was ten feet under water, forcing the state legislature to move to San Francisco for six months.

Thousands of people are believed to have perished and the state was bankrupted. Compared to today, these areas were sparsely populated in the 1860’s. When the 1861-62 mega-storm hit California, the state population was only a half million. Today, there are 6 million residents just in the Central Valley. A storm of the magnitude of 150 years ago, would do vastly more damage.

“To get a sense of the extent of damage, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently used a storm damage simulation program to predict damage from a storm like the one in 1861-62—only they modeled a storm lasting 23 days instead of 43 days. The results showed that 1.4 million residents would have to be evacuated and $400 billion in property damage and agricultural loses would result, with long-term business and employment interruptions eventually reaching $700 billion. These losses are roughly three times as high as would result, according to USGS simulations, from a magnitude 7.8 earthquake striking Southern California (the “Big One” that everyone has been talking about).”[6]

Multidecadal Droughts

The Long Drought of the Mid-Holocene

The “Holocene” is the name given to the last 11,700 years of the Earth’s history, the time since the end of the last major glacial epoch or “Ice Age”. During the Mid-Holocene Period, roughly from 7000 to 5000 years ago, climate in the West shifted toward warmer, drier conditions, and prolonged drought.

The inland areas, such as the Great Basin, what is known as southeastern California, were the hardest hit. In response, the archaeological evidence suggests that populations migrated to the coast, which offered cooler climate, more moisture, and plentiful food, particularly from marine sources such as shellfish and salmon. Settlements were established along the Pacific Northwest coast, around present-day San Francisco Bay, and as far south as California’s Santa Barbara Basin and Channel Islands.[7]

Medieval Warm Period (900 to 1400 AD)

A more recent protracted period of dryness occurred during the Medieval Ages between 900 AD and 1400 AD. Droughts lasted decades to over a century during that time.

Life in the interior of California was particularly difficult. Native Americans, whose populations had grown during the wetter periods leading up to the droughts, suffered greatly. There is evidence of conflict (Warfare between groups arose over territory and resource), disease (E.g. malnutrition), and finally mass migration in search of water, food and other resources.

Coastal groups appear to have fared better than inland groups because most of their food came from the ocean. Eventually freshwater was scarce, however, and all along California’s coast, including San Francisco Bay, sites were abandoned in search of new water sources. Experts speculate that the population moved over large territories as resources became scarcer, alternating between inland and coastal sites on a seasonal basis. Such mobility allowed the coastal groups to survive.[8]

Prediction of Future Droughts

In a 2015 study, researchers from NASA, Columbia University, and Cornell University reported that there is above 80 percent chance of a 35-year or longer drought occurring in the Southwest and Central Great Plains by 2100, if the world stays on its current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions.

If countries reduce their emissions to “middle of the road” targets, the chances of a megadrought striking the Great Plains in this century drop to between 60 and 70 percent but remain nearly 80 percent for the Southwest.[9]

The Hydraulic Era & Deterioration of Aquatic Ecosystems

The twentieth century has been called the “hydraulic era” in the American West. The natural hydrology was re-engineered through massive public works, such as dams and aqueducts. In less than a century, water engineers harnessed almost all of the naturally flowing water throughout the American West to provide enough water for the ever-growing population and expanding agriculture. The water works also provide hydroelectric power and flood protection. Water engineering allowed the population to grow to a size far larger than the region could support naturally.

“The monumental changes to the region’s natural rivers, lakes, and wetlands have wreaked havoc on the natural aquatic ecosystems that these waters harbored. The plants and animals that depend on streams, lakes, and wetlands declined rapidly over the twentieth century due to large-scale land and water development in the West. Hundreds of species that are federally listed as threatened or endangered depend on rivers and streams. Over three quarters of the native freshwater fish in the West are either extinct already or listed as endangered.”[10]

Water development has come at a steep price to the environment, particularly to aquatic ecosystems. Policymakers have begun to restore water resources and aquatic habitats. More effort in this direction is needed. Water conservation should be given a higher priority in order to share this life-giving resource with the natural world.

California’s Groundwater Depletion

Groundwater comes from aquifers, sponge-like gravel and sand-filled underground reservoirs, and we see this water only when it flows from springs and wells.

California does not regulate groundwater like it does surface water. Landowners have pumped as much water as they want, drawing down the water table. "California's new Sustainable Groundwater Management Act", which went into effect in 2014, eventually will require farmers to report their groundwater use, butnot until around the year 2022 or later. And even then, the new law requires water officials to keep farmers’ groundwater use secret, shielding gluttonous users from public scrutiny.”[11]

“Californians drained about 125 million acre-feet of groundwater (about 41 trillion gallons) from the Central Valley between 1920 and 2013, according to U.S. Geological Survey. That’s equivalent to enough water to provide every person on Earth with a 30-year supply of drinking water.”[12]

A report from Stanford University says that 40% of California’s water needs are met by groundwater when normal amounts of rain and snow fall and 60% in years of drought.[13] Such usage is not sustainable. The groundwater has not been able to replenish and instead continues to decline in quantity each year.

“Some shallow aquifers recharge from surface water, but deeper aquifers contain ancient water locked in the earth by changes in geology thousands or millions of years ago. These aquifers typically cannot recharge, and once this “fossil” water is gone, it is gone forever, potentially changing how and where we can live and grow food, among other things.”[14]

A Sinking State

Many of our state’s groundwater basins are so heavily pumped out that the land is sinking – in some places by 1” each month. “As the below-ground aquifers are drained, the land sinks to partially fill the space left by the removed water. Scientists call this subsidence. Subsidence was first documented in California in the 1930’s. It primarily affects farmland since farmers use about 80% of the state’s water. Although cities, such as San Jose and San Luis Obispo, have experienced costly subsidence too. Back in the 1960’s, California farmland in the Central Valley was sinking at a record pace. By the late 1970’s, some areas had sunk about 30 feet. The sinking took off again in 2008.”[15]

The Need to Prepare for Our Variable Climate

Ingram’s and Malamud-Roam’s tales of California’s variable climate history teach us that even during wetter times, we need to prepare for the eventual dry climate that always follows and during dry times we need to prepare for the eventual megafloods. Extreme variability is the nature of our climate.

**Please note that the following ways to potentially prepare for multidecadal droughts and megafloods are not taken from the book; “The West Without Water”.

Preparing for Multidecadal Droughts

A report by the Public Policy Institute of California (an independent, objective, and nonpartisan research organization) entitled “Policy Priorities for Managing Drought” reviews lessons learned from California’s recent drought and Australia’s response to its decade-long “Millennium Drought” and provides policy recommendations for strengthening drought management. In summary, the report recommends that State leaders address weaknesses in four areas of drought preparation and response by:

  1. Improving water use tracking and information;
  2. Setting clear goals and priorities for public health and the environment;
  3. Promoting water conservation and more resilient water supplies; and
  4. Strengthening environmental management.

Please click here to view the Public Policy Institute of California's report entitled; "Policy Priorities for Managing Drought".

In order to address severe droughts, additional questions, besides those answered by the Public Policy Institute of California, come to mind:

Preparing for Megafloods

The Bay Area Council Economic Institute’s 2015 report entitled; “Surviving the Storm” gives recommendations on how to prepare for extreme storm events, including megafloods, delta flooding, sea-level rise, and the impact of earthquakes on flood protection structures.

Please click here to view the Bay Area Council Institute's report entitled; "Surviving the Storm".

In general, the report recommends the following:

Flaws in the Bay Area Council Economic Institute’s findings

Much of what the Bay Area Council Economic Institute’s 2015 report seems valid. However, there are a couple of areas that are lacking:

Conclusion

As shown throughout the book, “The West Without Water”, the American West faces a climatic future that is predicted to repeat the past and become generally warmer and drier, with longer droughts interspersed with larger and more frequent floods. Society needs to be educated about the West’s extremely variable climate, water’s vital importance and scarcity, the delicate balance between consumption and conservation, and what individuals can do to help. Policymakers need to begin taking action to prepare for both the dry and wet ends of the climate spectrum facing the region, in a way that meets the needs of society and the needs of a healthy environment.


References

[1] Tavares, E. “The West Without Water: An Interview with Dr. B. Lynn Ingram.” Sept. 2014. Web. 27 April 2016. <https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140905215458-1088431-the-west-without-water-an-interview-with-dr-b-lynn-ingram>

[2] Tavares, E. “The West Without Water: An Interview with Dr. B. Lynn Ingram.” Sept. 2014. Web. 27 April 2016. <https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140905215458-1088431-the-west-without-water-an-interview-with-dr-b-lynn-ingram>

[3] Tavares, E. “The West Without Water: An Interview with Dr. B. Lynn Ingram.” Sept. 2014. Web. 27 April 2016. <https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140905215458-1088431-the-west-without-water-an-interview-with-dr-b-lynn-ingram>

[4] Tavares, E. “The West Without Water: An Interview with Dr. B. Lynn Ingram.” Sept. 2014. Web. 27 April 2016. < https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140905215458-1088431-the-west-without-water-an-interview-with-dr-b-lynn-ingram >

[5] Wilson, A. December 2012. “It’s Raining in California.” Resilient Design Institute. Web. 27 April 2016.

[6] Wilson, A. December 2012. “It’s Raining in California.” Resilient DesignInstitute. Web. 27 April 2016.

[7] Ingram, B.L. Malamud-Roam, F. “The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow.” Berkeley: The Regents of the University of California, 2013.

[8] Ingram, B.L. Malamud-Roam, F. “The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow.” Berkeley: The Regents of the University of California, 2013.

[9] Howard, B.C. “Worst Drought in 1000 Years Predicted for American West.” National Geographic February 2015. Web. May 16, 2016.

[10] Ingram, B.L. Malamud-Roam, F. “The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow.” Berkeley: The Regents of the University of California, 2013.

[11] Haverson, N. June 2015. “Sobering Facts About California’s Groundwater Problem.” Reveal News. Web. 27 April 2016. < https://www.revealnews.org/article/9-sobering-facts-about-californias-groundwater-problem/ >

[12] Haverson, N. June 2015. “Sobering Facts About California’s Groundwater Problem.” Reveal News. Web. 27 April 2016 < https://www.revealnews.org/article/9-sobering-facts-about-californias-groundwater-problem/ >

[13] Nagel, T. “Stanford’s Water in the West program offers new way to view groundwater resources.” Stanford Report July 31, 2014. Web. 27 April 2016.
< http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/july/groundwater-lane-woods-073114.html >

[14] Dimick, D. August 2014. “If You Think The Water Crisis Can’t Get Worse, Wait Until The Aquifers Are Drained.” National Geographic. Web. 27 April 2016. < http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/08/140819-groundwater-california-drought-aquifers-hidden-crisis/ >

[15] Haverson, N. June 2015. “Sobering Facts About California’s Groundwater Problem.” Reveal News. Web. 27 April 2016. < https://www.revealnews.org/article/9-sobering-facts-about-californias-groundwater-problem/ >