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SMART
SMART Disrupts 300,000+ But Removes Only 35 Cars from 101
Here is an analysis performed by transit expert Thomas Rubin (former CFO of Southern California Transit) of all “new starts” plans submitted to the FTA over the nine-year period, FY00-FY08, a total of 83, with usable projections of both total and new ridership.
The new systems with the highest “new” ridership percentage were commuter rail extensions into areas that did not have any pre-existing transit service. Clearly SMART does not qualify so it should appear above the average of displaced transit riders.
The simple average is 38.1% of new start train riders are new riders (e.g. 61.9% are displaced transit - likely bus - riders).
The weighted average (taking into account passenger numbers) which is likely more accurate is 26.6% of train passengers will be new riders. As mentioned though this is skewed as the numbers include services where there was no existing transit.
So we should really look at SMART's ridership figures and say that 1 in 4 riders (26.6%) will be former car drivers; the majority (73.4%) are simply existing bus riders who switched to use the train.
Apply this to the 231 projected daily SMART rides to Larkspur, or 115 riders to Larkspur and you will see that hundreds of thousands of people will be disrupted but only about 35 cars will be removed from the road. Is that really worth it?