Economic and Financial Analysis, as reported by ING Think
"July 2: The June jobs report showed that U.S. payrolls rose by 4.8 million, well above the 3.23 million consensus estimate, while May’s payrolls gain was revised up to 2.699 million from 2.51 million. Fantastic.
It shows how the re-openings have allowed businesses to get into gear and bring workers back. Leisure and hospitality was the biggest contributor, jumping 2.088 million, with retail up 740,000, but there were gains everywhere, including 903,000 for trade and transport and 568,000 for education and health care.
The household survey shows the unemployment rate dropping further, to 11.1% from 13.3%, having peaked at 14.7%. But that isn’t the true state of affairs, and it isn’t just down to confusion over how to fill out the response form.
If you dig into the jobless claims report, you find that the total number of people claiming unemployment benefits in all programs rose by 916,000 in the week of June 13, taking the total number of claimants to 31.49 million. This is nearly double the 17.75 million “officially” unemployed based in the jobs report. Remember, you have to be actively looking for work to be classified as “officially” unemployed, but you don’t need to do so in order to claim benefits right now—hence the 11.1% figure is grossly understating the true picture." [Emphasis added]