Cindy Winter writes in the July 6 IJ that “the SMART train should be a big help in reducing congestion on Highway 101.”
Clearly she does not understand the impact of the train on alleviating congestion will be minimal.
SMART projects 3,000 daily riders — wildly optimistic, especially with their proposed fares.
Portland’s Westside Express Service, with a much lower flat fare of just $2.50, gets an average of 28.5 riders per train.
SMART will run 22 trains per day.
Typically half of train riders are bus riders who have switched to the train. So if, despite fares being double, SMART achieves Portland’s ridership, it will remove just 314 people from Highway 101.
Meanwhile 101 at the Novato Narrows carries over 100,000 cars per day, or 167,000 people.So at a cost of hundreds of millions, SMART should reduce 101 traffic congestion by 0.2 percent.
Ms. Winter may call that “a big help.” A statistician would call that “a rounding error.”
Ms. Winter then suggests the solution: “The primary means to achieve a decent level of service is to stop driving around, solo, in SUVs and other unnecessarily large vehicles.”
Yet, she proffers no realistic solution to change such behaviors besides this expensive rail service.
She ignores census data showing transit use in Marin has declined since 1990. Perhaps she shares the viewpoint of Steve Heminger, executive director of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, who said in a 2010 memo the operating costs of cars should be increased five-fold to change our behaviors.
I propose a far better solution — scrap SMART and divert the saved money to significantly reduce transit fares on buses.
Instead of using the stick, use a carrot. This is a proven way to increase transit ridership, reduce congestion — and it would genuinely help out many on lower incomes.
Instead, we’re going to be making payments for a very long time on an expensive train that will have next to no impact reducing traffic congestion and is serving to push up taxes and transportation costs.
While well intentioned, Ms. Winter might want to reassess the available data and congratulate the civil grand jury for proposing pragmatic approaches based on reality, not simply whims that she, or an expensive train to nowhere, can somehow get people out of their cars.